Freakonomics By Steven Levit and Stephen Dubner has been getting its share of publicity lately for its authors straightforward and non sentimental approach to examing some of our societies interesting issues through the hard lens of statistical systems based on economic theory. His manner is not as dry as that sentence might make it sound though. The book definitely has a cute element to it and is done with humor and approachable language, which has probably contributed greatly to its becoming a bestseller.
Most notable the book has provided the inspiration for William Bennet’s recent idiotic comments regarding how aborting all black children would lower crime. His comments were stupid because he didn’t present them well, not because he’s wrong. He made it sound like a black issue and it’s not. It’s about economics which just happen to effect balck’s disproportionately through no or little fault of their own. What the numbers undeniably show is that crime had a major and unexpcted drop starting in the 90′s and continuing today. Criminologists and experts preceeding that drop warned everyone how crime was escalating (and it was), and how it would only continue. Remember the term Superpredator? This what what they scared people into thinking was coming as the population got younger and the crime wave that I remember so dominating the public discussion (thats how Guliani got his ratty ass elected) was growing.
Then suddenly it dropped precipitously. And quickly. No one could figure it out. Eventually theories got thrown around such as economic boom, tougher prison sentencing, advanced policing techniques, more cops, fallout in the crack market, and aging of population being foremeost. But ask yourself this. What part of the population is most prone to crime and being arrested? We all know it’s poor, disenfranchised, abused youth that also happen to be black more often due to socio economic deprivations. The stats back this up. Now ask yourself who used to get all the illegal abortions before Roe V Wade? If you’re not as sure on this one, you’re instinct is probably right as the stats also show that to be the women from these similar backgrounds and lifestyles. These are white women too who in general come from lower income backgrounds, lower education, unstable home and often abusive homes, with little hope of improvement. Ergo legalized abortion is the significant factor towards lowering the crime rate so suddenly. Levit takes apart the other rationales quite ably though he does show that increased police numbers, not techniques, and the crack boom going bust were contributing factors. But legal abortion is the primary reason.
Consequently Guliani’s methods had little or nothing to do with NY’s famous drops in crime and cleaning up of the city. NY in fact had a 3 year edge on the trend being 1 of 5 states that had legalized abortion before Roe V Wade. In fact the other 4 also, along with NY, had the greatest and fastest successes in crime drops. That’s no coincidence.
Rather than having the racist undertones Bennet gave them, the economic and statistical methods Levit uses are the kinds of thing that he and others use to prove that black students don’t do worse on testing due to being dumber by nature but rather having deprived socio-economic backgrounds. He shows that when all is equal the testing results are equal.
Alot of interesting stuff is in the book, stuff like using the economists methods and motivator of incentives to show how The Weakest Link was discriminatory (not towards blacks), real estate agents are like the KKK (got to do with information hording and vulnerability towards info), the shared qualities of Sumo Wrestlers and teachers (basically they both cheat alot), and more nuggets. The book spends its last couple of chapters talking about parenting and intelligence, ending with an interesting treaty on names I’ll get to shortly. But as for parents effects, Levitt starts off referencing alot of solid work and evidence by the likes of Steven Pinker (whose Blank Slate I read last year and indeed undermines parents role) and others that show pretty irrefutably that kids personalities and intelligence have little to do with what their parents do.
On the plus side Levitt gives good reason to believe that what the parents are and have already done will influence the kids and that they can shape certain ends of their destinies. Even though most of the effect is genetic and from peer groups, parents do matter. Certain controversies are rendered insignificant as in the breast or bottle feeding issue and whether or not to pick up or not pick up crying babies and whether or not letting them sleep with you is ok. Basically these kiinds of things will have no effect on the childs development. This goes contrary to what we’ve wante dto believe for a long time. On a psychological level we want to believe we have an effect on outcomes. That’s why, as Levitt shows, we worry about Mad Cow and not Salmonella. We can clean a chicken. We can’t control for the other even though its proven to be much less dangerous or likely to contaminate our food. It’s why we worry about guns more than pools killing our kids even though pools kill 100x more kids than guns do. It’s why we worry about flying even though the risk of it compared to driving are equal when all the numbers are factored in. It’s why people brought in to the marketing of car seats for kids even though they have little to no role in saving lives. It’s actually sitting in the back away from airbag and windshield that saves a child or babies life in a car crash. The seats just make someone rich.
But bad parenting does adversely effect kids. That much seems clear. But ability, personality,and intelligence are genetic. The studies are geting to be overwhelming including those done with adopted twins seperated at birth. In fact being adopted or in a homosexual or single parent household is shown to have little effect good or bad on kids development. What will effect them beyond genetics and peer groups is the past work of the parents before they had kids, not the future stuff they do once they have them. What parents are is whats important not what they do. And what they are is of course a partial product of genetics. But its also a product of economics and education. Those are also linked to genetics but there are loopholes. Economists use a technique called regression analysis to help determine causation and seperate it from correlation. When dealing with hundreds of variables this method is a way of reducing the data to the variables most closely related.
An example from the book goes like this: After proving ably that the quality of schools have little effect on kids success or intelligence from high school age and up, Levitt tries to find the qualities that do help determine or link smarter kids from the rest. Take the question of books in the home. Does having more help make kids smarter? At first glance it appears so. They do test higher. But regression analysis reduces this to a correlation by seperating the commonalities in the data until left with the control categories correlating to books in the home. What you find is that books in the home dont cause smarter kids but are indicative of a household that has the qualities that will likely also have smarter kids. This includes the genetic and educational, as well as economic predispositions towards having more books.
Again this does not rob the parents of influence at some point down the line. Though adopted kids do test worse despite the influence of adoptive parents that tend to be better educated, more stable, and higher paid than the parents that gave the child up, their influence does eventually pay off. Their adopted kids, despite genetic weaknesses and personality traits more in line with the genetic parents, do finish school more, go to college more, get better paying jobs, get married later, and dont get into as much trouble, as kids not adopted.
So the generally more serious and better educated parents who tend to adopt and are more committed to raising children than a mother who usually falls into the trouble d categories that would be disposed to give them up, do have their stabilizing influence felt down the road.
Among the interesting factoids associated with this topic is that low birth weight is an important factor in determining outcome of a child (in a bad way), going to museums alot has no effect, age of the mother is an important factor (older is correlated with more success and higher intelligence for kids) and watching alot of tv has no effect good or bad.
And speaking of kids destinies, what of a name? Does it hold power?
Studies involving black and white gaps have looked at black culture and its effect as a possible detriment. Levitt reduces that study to the names society gives its kids. And it holds up well not only for black-white differences but for upper, middle, and lower class white ones as well. Turns out there’s alot in a name. Not for reasons people would think though. A name won’t influence destiny, rather it is the parents life or past destiny reflected in the name they choose that is a measure of a kids background and possible prospects.
A disparity has grown since the civil rights and black power movements that has cause black families to use more unique names to signify their newfound identity and refusal to sell out to white culture. Over 40% of California’s names given to black girls were unique to them and not shared by white babies. Even the name Unique becomes an example. The 90′s featured various black girls being named Unique, Uneek, Uneque, Uneqqee, or various other spellings of the word. It will surpise no one that of the 626 girls named Deja in the 90′s almost 600 were black. Nor that 431 of the 454 girls named Precious were black. Needless to say these names are not a good sign for future success either due to the low education, low income backgrounds that produce them. One woman mistook Tempest Bledsoe from the Cosby Show for Temptress, named her daughter that and when a judge at her daughters bail hearing for lewd behavior of some sort chided her for the name she had no idea what it meant. This gives you an idea.
Whites choose more common names signaling value in conformity, but they do distinguish themselves on economic levels for which ones they choose and when they choose them. Whites tend to try and create an illusion of prosperity or affluence that comes with names that have been popular with higher income, higher educated whites. The names then filter down societies economic ladder and signal an attempt of lower classes to attain to a status previously beyond them. This was the phenomenon behind the rash of Heather’s and Amber’s named so in the 80′s. Those names had run their course in the upper spheres of society and became a sort of middle class cache or even white trash ambition.
Names are charted in the book including the most common white baby girl top 20 (1 is Molly-20 is Kathryn), Top 20 black baby girls (1 is Imani, Raven 20) and the same for boys ranging from Jake and Dylan for white boys to DeShawn and Darryl for black boys. Also included is most common middle income white girl: Sarah, Emily, Jessica, Lauren, Ashley are top 5. Megan gets in at 7 Jennifer at 16, and Madison at 15.
Most common low income white girl names: Ashley, Jessica, Amanda, Samantha, Brittany plus some others from above list that have begun to filter down.
Then there’s a series of top 5 lists, me being a High Fidelity fan and general fan of lists must now list them all:
Most common high-end white girl names:
Alexandra
Lauren
Katherine
Madison
Rachel
Most common low income white girl names
Amber
Heather
Stephanie
Alyssa
High end income boys names:
Benjamin
Samuel
Jonathan
Alexander
Andrew
Low end white boys
Cody
Brandon (my favorite)
Anthony (my confirmation name which I actually chose myself)
Justin
Robert
Most common white girl names among high education parents:
Katherine
Emma
Alexandra
Julia
Rachel
Low education
Amber
Heather
Brittany
Brianna
White boy names among high education parents
Benjamin
Samuel
Alexander
John
William
White boy names low education
Cody
Travis
Brandon
Justin
Tyler
There’s a top 20 of white girl names best signifying low income without having as many in common as the above lists. Number 1 and 2 on that list are Angel and Heaven. There’s also a list of many other names in the books notes that show the avg years of schooling for the mothers of each particular name. The lowest number avg i could find was 8 years of schooling. And what name did that level of schooling have in common?
Jesus.
Angel, Heaven, and Jesus. Notice a religious people are stupid theme here? (Not that its their fault). Destiny was 4 on that list which shows a nice measure of irony. There are 3 variations of the name Brandy on that top 20 and a Britany and Tiffanie. A veritable who’s who of young pop stars being named by some of the least educated people in the nation. This sort of also explains Britany Spears devotion to George Bush. Jihadi shows up with a mom’s 11the grade education avg which shows that a little bit of education is indeed a dangerous thing.
Top 20 low education white boy names feature Ricky at #1, Joey at 2 and such staples as Bobby, Steve, Johnny, Tommy, and Michael.
High education parents for white girl names and this is significant because it will be a sign of whats to come in 2015 for the rest of us. Sort of the new Heathers and Jennifers.
Lucienne is 1 on high education which I dont see catching on. Number 2 Marie-Claire who’s parents avg 16.5 years of schooling. That one I can see getting big in a few years. Glynnis, Adair, Beatrix, Rotem, Oona, and Neeka arent going to happen as long I’m alive. Philippa, Flannery, Linden, Waverly, eleanora, Elika, and Meira have a shot. But my bet is on Marie-Claire from a previous list.
High education parents white boy names:
Dov is #1. Then you get some Akiva, Sander, Sacha, Ansel, yonah, Finnegan, MacGregor, Florian, Beckett, Sumner and assorted Jewish sounding names. I’d bet on MacGregor and Beckett.
Levitt shows how names like Lauren and Madison went from high end in 90′s to common in 2000 just as Amber, Heather, Michelle and Melissa were the rage in the 80′s. The popular 2000 names like Ashley, Emma, Sarah, and Madison (which I think we can blame on Splash), are about to become popular among low income and less educated people occupying the spots held by the aforemetnioned, and now held by Brittany and Stephanie. Parents who once named their kids “Justin or Brandon and are now calling them Alexander and Benjamin,” in the higher reaches of our social ladder according to Levitt.
Out of curiosity I looked for my name and it wasn’t listed which in itself says something since there were pages of names in the back with mothers average educational level. Possibly this says something about not being consequential enough to notice. I’m ok with this. The name I’ve thought of calling a daughter f I were ever lucky enough to have one is Chloe which was listed with a 14.52 avg which is pretty good. Kind of an educated hippie vibe and educational level connoted to me in that number and name. Another low one was Chastity at 10.66. Emma and Ella were both over 15. Maxamillian 15.17 and Lars 15.09 (the brains behind Metallica). Sophie a 15.45 while Tabatha and Diamond not surprisingly came in under 12. Whitney surprised me a bit only getting 13.79. I would have guessed at least high 14′s there. Cooper came in at almost 15 for a boy.
I go on about these names simply because for some reason I find it fun and interesting, though it’s getting away from the review of the book and its ideas a bit. But the name thing does break it down some and show the a-priori effect parents can have and is an encouragement to make the most of our lives even before we have kids. And names do appear to be a quick peek at the myriad levels of variables that go into plotting our destinies though the names themselves mean nothing. The beauty of this stuff is, like science and Einstein who said the most incomprehensible thing about the universe is that it is entirely comprehendable, economic theories encapsulating all that these do such as regression analysis shows us that we can get to any truth with proper methods. Nothing is unknowable. We may not always like the answers but as the authors put it, morality represents how we would like the world to work and economics represents how it actually does work.
Back to names and lists. Most people have given thought to names for their future kids. Here was my top 5 male and female before reading this book. Please feel free to list your own.
Girls: Boys:
Chloe Nicholas
Megan Christopher
Zoe Dylan
Kate-Katherine Jacob
Penelope Ben
Book predicts Annika, Ansley, Ava, Avery, Aviva, Clementine, Elaonor, Ella, Emma, Fiona, Flannery, Grace, Isabel, Kate, Lara, linden, Maeve, Marie-Claire, Maya, philippa, Phoebe, Quinn, Sophie, and Waverly as most popular in 2015.
For boys, 2015 may popularize these: Aidan, Aido, Anderson, Ansel, Asher, beckett, bennett, carter, Cooper, Finnegan, Harper, Jackson, Johan, Keyon, Liam, Maxamillian, McGregor, Oliver, reagan, Sander, sumner, and Will.
In light of this new information I think I’d strike Megan and Kate but I still feel pretty damn good about the other 3. On the boys I really dont want dylan or Jacob now since they made the whitest boy names list. They do seem effected to me in retrospect. Lucas was also on that list unfortunately since I always kind of liked that. From the 2015 list Finnegan is too ethnic but not bad. McGregor is also borderline. Aidan is ok, as is Oliver, though it has the unfortuante connotations of invoking the imagery of a pig as well as the cutesy Brady cousin brought in to plug the sitcom formula for adorable kids once Bobby and Cindy starting aging out. Most of the other ones sound like prep school assholes. I like Phoebe on the girls end and probably should have thought of it myself. Maya is nice too. Quinn makes me think of Jane Seymour. That’s not good. Isn’t Aviva a skin care product? If not it should be. Not a girls name. Emma and Marie-Claire have a shot on my list but I’d avoid conformity so Chloe remains #1 with Penelope moving to 2 slot after Odessyeus’s wife who was the portrait of literary loyalty.
The thread is now open for your favorite names as well as predictions for name popularity or general thoughts oncurrent and past naming trends.
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